2024 US Presidential Election: Politically Motivated Threats Target Range of Stakeholders

Thomas Matthew Crook’s attempt to assassinate former president and current presidential candidate Donald Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July 2024 highlights the escalating risk of physical harm targeting political figures during the 2024 election cycle; however, politicians are not the only high-risk targets of politically motivated threats. In the joint FBI/DHS intelligence bulletin highlighting concern for possible retaliatory attacks in response to the assassination attempt on former president Trump, the agencies stated “election-related targets” could become victims of politically motivated acts of violence, as individuals in online communities incite, discuss, and post threats directed at political targets amid worsening political polarization in a fraught election cycle.

In this report, Nisos focused on politically motivated actors using threatening language on social media to target government employees, members of law enforcement, elections officials, members of the judiciary, and even individuals carrying out their civic duties. Nisos assesses that politically motivated threats and harassment directed at these sets of high-risk individuals will continue throughout the 2024 election cycle, putting significant pressure on social media platforms and executive protection and security teams to maintain a comprehensive awareness of a rapidly shifting threat landscape. Nisos leverages cross-platform visibility and analytical expertise to provide comprehensive reporting on social media threats and threat actors that target high-risk individuals and groups. Our ability to quickly identify physical and narrative threats and unmask the threat actors behind them aids security teams in minimizing the risk of harassment and violence that high-risk individuals face.

Law Enforcement

Law enforcement members, from uniformed officers up to the Attorney General, have faced increased threats and intimidation as potential threat actors perceive law enforcement—particularly at the federal level—to be politically motivated. Nisos identified several vague threats against federal law enforcement in online forums associated with potentially violent actors, such as statements that the “feds are welcome to bleed” if they target white nationalist groups. However, such threats are not exclusive to such communities but are present across a range of platforms; traditional social media users called for Attorney General Merrick Garland’s arrest and also included the Attorney General’s son-in-law in various calls for arrest, demonstrating that these harmful narratives and calls to action can evolve and include family members.

Following last month’s assassination attempt on former president Trump, individuals and politicians across the political spectrum are highlighting the US Secret Service’s (USSS) alleged oversights and lapse in coverage, which they believe led to the security breach. However, some proponents of this narrative are specifically blaming the female agents who responded to the event, claiming the agents were “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI)” hires—an initiative allegedly pursued by Democrats—and insinuating they were not hired based on merit. USSS Director Kim Cheatle stated in a May 2023 interview that the agency’s goal was to have 30% female recruits by 2030, which is fueling the narrative that the USSS agents providing Trump’s detail at the rally were DEI hires. These claims very likely increase the physical security risk for female and minority members of law enforcement, as politically motivated actors place the blame for injuries and loss of life on these female USSS agents, providing possible justification for threat actors or extremist groups to target them with acts of violence. Female and minority federal agents of other agencies will possibly become targets of threats, as DEI hire narratives continue to proliferate.

Government Employees

Politically motivated threats directed at government employees are likely to continue throughout the 2024 presidential election cycle based on recent events and the rapidly evolving political landscape. Threats typically follow divisive political statements, controversial policy changes or lack of policy changes, public engagements, and acts of violence. Following the Trump rally shooting, Butler County employees, including law enforcement officers, received a significant amount of threats, with the majority coming in the form of harassing phone calls and emails. As the public seeks to ascribe responsibility for the security breach, government employees and local law enforcement officials are facing criticism for their handling of the incident and are becoming targets of harassment. Individuals looking to assign blame for the shooting have turned to social media to express their frustrations, leading to possible incitement to violence, coordination of retaliatory attacks, and the spread of false or misleading narratives.

About Nisos®

Nisos is the Managed Intelligence Company. We are a trusted digital investigations partner, specializing in unmasking threats to protect people, organizations, and their digital ecosystems in the commercial and public sectors. Our open source intelligence services help security, intelligence, legal, and trust and safety teams make critical decisions, impose real world consequences, and increase adversary costs. For more information, visit: https://www.nisos.com.